On July 28, 2026, the Hong Kong stock market once again exhibited a pattern of opening low and closing high. The Hang Seng Index once dipped to 21,780 points in early trading, then oscillated upward driven by technology and financial stocks, eventually closing up 1.2% at 22,035 points, regaining the 22,000-point mark. Total turnover expanded to HK$135 billion, with net buying by southbound funds reaching HK$5.28 billion, indicating strong willingness of mainland funds to position at lows.
Market Interpretation: Tech Stocks Lead, Policy Expectations Support
On that day, the Hang Seng Tech Index performed strongly, closing up 2.3%, with heavyweight stocks such as Tencent Holdings, Meituan, and Alibaba all rising over 2%. On the news front, the State Council executive meeting recently emphasized "continuously optimizing platform economy regulatory policies to boost market confidence," coupled with Tencent's upcoming Q2 earnings report, the market anticipated better-than-expected results. In addition, the Hong Kong SAR government announced it would study reducing stock trading stamp duty to enhance market liquidity, which directly stimulated the rise of brokerage stocks and the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.
From a fund flow perspective, southbound funds have been net buyers for 5 consecutive trading days, with total net buying exceeding HK$20 billion this week, mainly flowing into technology, healthcare and consumer sectors. Morgan Stanley analysts pointed out that the current Hang Seng Index PE ratio is about 9.5 times, at a historically low range, highlighting its medium- to long-term allocation value. However, in the short term, attention still needs to be paid to the Fed's interest rate hike expectations and geopolitical risks.
Practical Strategy: Stock Selection and Operation Points for Hong Kong Stocks in a Volatile Market
For Hong Kong stock investors, the current market is in a "bottom area" but has not yet formed a unilateral trend, making it more suitable to adopt a volatile market trading strategy. Here are some practical suggestions:
1. Select High-Quality Tracks, Focus on Structural Opportunities
- Technology Sector: Focus on internet platforms, artificial intelligence (AI) applications and semiconductors, especially leading companies with strong earnings certainty. For example, Tencent's cloud business growth is stable, and Meituan's local life recovery is evident.
- High-Dividend Sector: State-owned enterprises with ample cash flow such as coal, oil, and telecom operators, with dividend yields generally at 6%-8%, suitable as defensive allocations.
- Pharmaceuticals & Biotech: Innovative drug R&D progress and vaccine-related targets are expected to recover after industry policies become clear.
2. Position Management: Pyramid-Style Adding, Control Drawdown
It is recommended to control the overall position at 50%-70%, with the initial position light (20%). Add positions when the index breaks through key resistance (e.g., 22,500 points) or individual stocks start to pick up with volume. Set take-profit and stop-loss lines, for example, stop loss immediately if a single stock loss exceeds 8%.
3. Technical Indicator Assistance: Focus on Moving Average System and Volume
The Hang Seng Index is currently oscillating around the 20-day moving average (21,900 points). If it can firmly hold the 60-day moving average (22,300 points), the medium-term trend will strengthen. The MACD indicator shows a golden cross near the zero line, with short-term momentum increasing. In terms of volume, the day's turnover expanded to HK$135 billion, higher than the 5-day average volume (HK$110 billion), indicating increased willingness of funds to enter.
Risk Warning and Market Outlook
Despite the continuous increase in southbound fund positions, Hong Kong stocks still face external uncertainties: if the Fed's July FOMC meeting releases hawkish signals, it may dampen risk assets; escalating US-China tech rivalry will also drag down related stocks. Investors need to closely monitor the August Hong Kong stock earnings season. If leading companies report better-than-expected results, it could drive the index to break through the consolidation range. Overall, the current cost-effectiveness of Hong Kong stocks is prominent, suitable for patient investors with risk control awareness to build positions in batches.
(This article represents only personal views and does not constitute investment advice. The stock market carries risks. Invest with caution.)
