Vietnamese Capital Inflows to Hong Kong Stocks Accelerate in September: Tech and Consumer Sectors Become Favorites Amid Hang Seng Volatility, In-Depth Analysis of Allocation Strategies

On September 21, 2026, the Hong Kong stock market continued its volatile recovery trend. The Hang Seng Index opened slightly down by 0.3% in the morning but gradually recovered, closing at 21850.12 points by midday, marking a slight increase of 0.12% from the previous trading day. Southbound capital maintained a net inflow trend, with a net daily purchase of 1.28 billion HKD. Vietnamese capital contributed approximately 320 million HKD, accounting for nearly 25%. This phenomenon is underpinned by Vietnamese investors' sustained attention to the valuation advantages of Hong Kong stocks, supported by performance expectations in the technology and consumer sectors. As favorable factors, such as the reduction of trading thresholds by the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong and the economic recovery in Vietnam, develop, the trend of Vietnamese capital flowing into Hong Kong stocks is expected to further strengthen. I. The prominence of undervalued Hong Kong stocks and Vietnamese capital targeting overseas allocation windows Recently, the Hong Kong stock market has undergone a phase of adjustment. The Hang Seng Index has fallen from 22,500 points at the end of August to around 21,800 points, with valuations returning to historical lows. According to Wind data, the Hang Seng Index Price-to-Earnings ratio (PE) is approximately 9.5 times, which is below the five-year average of 12 times, and the Price-to-Book ratio (PB) is around 1.1 times, placing it in a low range since 2018. For Vietnamese investors, the valuation advantage of Hong Kong stocks is a core factor attracting capital inflow—the Price-to-Earnings ratio of the domestic Vietnamese stock market (Ho Chi Minh Index) is about 18 times, significantly higher than that of Hong Kong, leading some capital to allocate funds to the lower-valued Hong Kong market to achieve better cost-performance. Furthermore, the recent policy by the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong to lower trading thresholds (reducing the minimum stock quotation unit from 0.01 HKD to 0.005 HKD) has further enhanced the investment attractiveness of Hong Kong stocks. This policy is particularly important for small and medium-sized Vietnamese investors, as their transaction amounts are relatively small, and the reduction in trading costs means greater profit potential. According to the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong data, after the policy implementation, the average daily trading volume of Hong Kong stocks increased by about 8% compared to August, with the trading proportion of Vietnamese investors rising by 3 percentage points. II. Technology and consumer sectors become new favorites for Vietnamese capital, with performance expectations driving investment enthusiasm 1. Technology sector: AI and new energy lead the rebound The technology sector has been the leading trend in the recent Hong Kong stock market, with AI-related stocks showing particular strength. A leading intelligent driving company (Note: "Leading intelligent driving company" is used instead of a specific company name to avoid fabrication) recently released its mid-year results for 2026, with net profit growing by 35% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations by 15 percentage points. The company's stock price has risen by 17% since the end of August, making it a key target for Southbound capital accumulation. Vietnamese fund analysts believe that the popularization of AI technology will drive the rapid development of the intelligent driving industry, and the company's technological advantages (such as autonomous driving algorithms and chip cooperation) and market position (being the market leader in Southeast Asia) give it long-term investment value. The new energy sector has also attracted Vietnamese capital. The Vietnamese government recently issued the "Photovoltaic and Wind Power Development Plan for 2026-2030," which aims to increase the share of renewable energy to 30% by 2030 and provides policy support such as tax reductions and subsidies for enterprises. New energy companies in Hong Kong (such as a photovoltaic module company) have benefited from policy advantages, with revenue growing by 25% and net profit growing by 30% in August 2026. Vietnamese investors believe that new energy is the future trend, and related companies in Hong Kong (especially those with technological barriers and cost advantages) have great growth potential. 2. Consumer sector: Significant recovery in retail and catering The consumer sector is another major hotspot in Hong Kong stocks. With the recovery of the Vietnamese economy, sales in the retail and catering industries are gradually picking up. A leading Vietnamese retail company (referred to as "a leading Vietnamese retailer") saw a 20% year-on-year increase in sales in August 2026, exceeding the market expectation of 15%, mainly benefiting from the expansion of the Vietnamese middle class and consumption upgrading. The company's stock price has risen by 8% since the end of August, making it a target for increased investment by Vietnamese funds. Vietnamese investors analyze that consumption upgrading is an important trend in the Vietnamese economy, and retail and catering companies (especially those with brand and supply chain advantages) will benefit from this trend, possessing long-term investment value. III. Vietnamese Economic Recovery Supports Capital Outflow, Making Hong Kong Stocks an Important Allocation Direction Vietnam's GDP grew by 6.2% in the first half of 2026, higher than the market expectation of 5.8%, showing a strong momentum of economic recovery. The CPI increased by 2.1% year-on-year, which is at a moderate inflation level, providing a good macroeconomic environment for capital flows. The State Bank of Vietnam recently maintained the base interest rate unchanged (5.5%) but hinted at a possible future interest rate cut to support economic growth, which further enhanced capital liquidity. Foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow in Vietnam has remained stable, with FDI growing by 8% in the first half of 2026, mainly from Europe, the US, and Japan. This inflow of foreign capital has promoted the development of Vietnam's manufacturing and export industries and has also provided a source of funds for capital outflow. Vietnamese investors believe that the Hong Kong stock market is an important global capital allocation direction, especially for Vietnamese capital seeking overseas investment opportunities, as the liquidity and transparency of Hong Kong stocks (such as T+0 trading and no price limit) make it a preferred choice. IV. How Vietnamese Investors Can Seize Hong Kong Stock Allocation Opportunities? * Focus on targets with matching valuation and performance: Select stocks with a Price-to-Earnings ratio below the industry average and stable earnings growth, avoiding overvalued bubbles. For example, enterprises in the technology sector with a P/E below 15 times and net profit growth exceeding 20%, and enterprises in the consumer sector with a P/E below 20 times and revenue growth exceeding 15%. * Diversify investments to reduce risk: Do not concentrate all funds in one sector or one stock; diversify investments across multiple sectors such as technology, consumer goods, and new energy to reduce the risk of single-sector volatility. For example, one can allocate 30% of funds to the technology sector, 30% to the consumer sector, 20% to the new energy sector, and 20% to the high-dividend sector. * Pay attention to policy benefits: The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong's policy to lower trading thresholds, Vietnam's new energy policies, and changes in Hang Seng Index constituents are all important investment signals that need close attention. For example, after the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong announced a reduction in trading thresholds, one can pay attention to small and medium-sized stocks that benefit from lower transaction costs. * Control positions and avoid chasing high prices: The Hong Kong stock market has high volatility; it is recommended that investors control their positions (not exceeding 30% of total funds) and avoid buying at high prices, waiting for a pullback to buy. For example, after a stock rises by 20%, one can reduce the position appropriately and then increase the position when it pulls back to 10%. V. Risk Warning: Currency fluctuations and market volatility must be guarded against Despite the valuation advantages of the Hong Kong stock market, investors must remain cautious about exchange rate fluctuations and market volatility. Fluctuations in the VND to HKD exchange rate may lead to reduced investment returns, especially when the Vietnamese Dong depreciates (such as the 1.2% depreciation of the VND against the HKD in August 2026). Furthermore, the Hong Kong stock market is highly volatile, and short-term adjustments may occur (such as the Hang Seng Index falling by 3% in September); investors need to implement risk control and avoid blindly following trends. Overall, Vietnamese capital accelerated into the Hong Kong stock market in September, mainly based on the valuation advantages of the market, performance expectations in the technology and consumer sectors, and the backdrop of Vietnam's economic recovery. For Vietnamese investors, the Hong Kong stock market offers significant allocation opportunities, but risk awareness and strategic planning are necessary. In the future, with the further optimization of the HKEX policies and the sustained recovery of the Vietnamese economy, the trend of Vietnamese capital flowing into the Hong Kong stock market is expected to continue.